BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Phoebe In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Great Basin has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+6%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Great Basin is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Great Basin is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07
20300.030.000.07

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville 2NEVADA62025
Iron GateCALIFORNIA42019
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA32000
WillisNEVADA22015
Barnes ValOREGON21972
NewcastleUTAH22025
NubieberCALIFORNIA12007
BentonCALIFORNIA12018
BodieCALIFORNIA12022
LikelyCALIFORNIA11982
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA12022
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA12019
DorrisCALIFORNIA12008
MacdoelCALIFORNIA12018
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA11978
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA11974
HikoNEVADA12012
OreanaNEVADA12003
Carson RiverNEVADA12002
Meadow VallyNEVADA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.