BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-88%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±199.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.09
20260.000.000.09
20270.000.000.09
20280.000.000.09
20290.000.000.09

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DragertonUTAH81969
ToroweapARIZONA51997
HarmonyCOLORADO32018
Animas 2COLORADO32018
HuntARIZONA21976
PecosNEW-MEXICO22016
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO21996
ShivwitzUTAH22017
MoabUTAH22021
Peach SpringARIZONA12021
FalfaCOLORADO12023
LudlowCOLORADO12006
Cortez 2COLORADO12015
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO12019
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO12014
GallinasNEW-MEXICO12019
BoulderUTAH12013
AnethUTAH12024
NotomUTAH12024
Lake PowellUTAH11995
HatchUTAH12017
BicknellUTAH12014
AltonUTAH12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.