BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-34%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.55
20260.120.000.55
20270.110.000.54
20280.100.000.53
20290.090.000.52

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlueARIZONA21985
PomereneARIZONA22023
San SimonARIZONA22001
SunizonaARIZONA21997
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22010
RedingtonARIZONA21997
SprucedaleARIZONA22021
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22021
PrescottARIZONA11986
Peña BlancaARIZONA12009
PatagoniaARIZONA12013
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
Bartlett ResARIZONA12001
CutterARIZONA11995
AlpineARIZONA12023
McnealARIZONA12015
Carr MtnARIZONA12019
PortalARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.