BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-34%Since 1972
21Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029
0.09Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5295% range
±50%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.120.000.55
20260.120.000.55
20270.110.000.54
20280.100.000.53
20290.090.000.52

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental.
BlueARIZONA21985
PomereneARIZONA22023
San SimonARIZONA22001
SunizonaARIZONA21997
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22010
RedingtonARIZONA21997
SprucedaleARIZONA22021
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22021
PrescottARIZONA11986
Peña BlancaARIZONA12009
PatagoniaARIZONA12013
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
Bartlett ResARIZONA12001
CutterARIZONA11995
AlpineARIZONA12023
McnealARIZONA12015
Carr MtnARIZONA12019
PortalARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.