BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 827% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+827%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 827% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Black Phoebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.88–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.88–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.801.9
20261.40.822.0
20271.40.842.0
20281.40.862.0
20291.40.882.0

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NilandCALIFORNIA282024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA132018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA42010
DatelandARIZONA32016
BrawleyCALIFORNIA32012
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22015
Palo VerdeARIZONA22013
ArabyARIZONA22023
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22023
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA22018
OnyxCALIFORNIA22015
GlamisCALIFORNIA22018
Ft IrwinCALIFORNIA21977
FlorenceARIZONA11976
LagunaARIZONA12016
AjoARIZONA11995
RivieraARIZONA12016
Red RockARIZONA11993
Casa GrandeARIZONA12022
Cactus ForestARIZONA12000
Cutter 2ARIZONA12017
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12016
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12023
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12016
LenwoodCALIFORNIA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.