BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 827% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+827%Since 1971
32Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black Phoebe has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 827% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.88–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029
1.4Projected 2029 index
0.88–2.095% range
±25.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.801.9
20261.40.822.0
20271.40.842.0
20281.40.862.0
20291.40.882.0

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
NilandCALIFORNIA282024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA132018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA42010
DatelandARIZONA32016
BrawleyCALIFORNIA32012
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22015
Palo VerdeARIZONA22013
ArabyARIZONA22023
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22023
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA22018
OnyxCALIFORNIA22015
GlamisCALIFORNIA22018
Ft IrwinCALIFORNIA21977
FlorenceARIZONA11976
LagunaARIZONA12016
AjoARIZONA11995
RivieraARIZONA12016
Red RockARIZONA11993
Casa GrandeARIZONA12022
Cactus ForestARIZONA12000
Cutter 2ARIZONA12017
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12016
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12023
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12016
LenwoodCALIFORNIA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.