BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.010.69
20260.350.010.69
20270.340.000.68
20280.340.000.68
20290.340.000.68

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoquilleOREGON82024
WedderburnOREGON72024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA52023
OrleansCALIFORNIA52012
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA32019
HoneydewCALIFORNIA32017
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA32021
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA32018
YrekaCALIFORNIA32016
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA22024
HolmesCALIFORNIA22024
NavarroCALIFORNIA22011
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22012
AlderpointCALIFORNIA22012
HiouchiCALIFORNIA22006
UmpquaOREGON22024
ElktonOREGON22024
Hazel CampOREGON22022
GlasgowOREGON22024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON22024
GreenOREGON22024
SelmaOREGON22024
HullvilleCALIFORNIA12019
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12014
Martins FyCALIFORNIA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.