BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Sierra Nevada has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+64%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has risen sharply in Sierra Nevada: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.35–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.35–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.321.0
20260.680.331.0
20270.690.331.0
20280.700.341.1
20290.700.351.1

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KernvilleCALIFORNIA72008
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA52024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA42013
PaxtonCALIFORNIA42024
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA32018
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA21973
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA22024
WawonaCALIFORNIA22024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11973
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12021
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12021
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA12008
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12024
SattleyCALIFORNIA11976
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12019
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12021
RivertonCALIFORNIA12001
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA11994
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12008
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12018
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA12019
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA12017
StrawberryCALIFORNIA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.