BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Phoebe In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-50%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.26
20270.110.000.25
20280.100.000.25
20290.100.000.25
20300.100.000.25

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO52019
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO41999
JornadaNEW-MEXICO21981
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Black GapTEXAS22004
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11974
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12012
QueenNEW-MEXICO12002
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO11993
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO12025
ComstockTEXAS11976
ShafterTEXAS11977
ValentineTEXAS11977
Casa PiedraTEXAS12022
Bear MtnTEXAS11992
PresidioTEXAS12022
Salt FlatTEXAS12014
CanutilloTEXAS12010
MarathonTEXAS12009
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.