BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-27%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.26
20260.110.000.26
20270.110.000.26
20280.100.000.26
20290.100.000.25

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO52019
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO41999
JornadaNEW-MEXICO21981
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
Black GapTEXAS22004
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22022
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11974
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12012
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
QueenNEW-MEXICO12002
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO11993
ComstockTEXAS11976
ShafterTEXAS11977
ValentineTEXAS11977
Casa PiedraTEXAS12022
Bear MtnTEXAS11992
PresidioTEXAS12022
Salt FlatTEXAS12014
CanutilloTEXAS12010
MarathonTEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.