BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-27%Since 1977
22Routes In Region
38Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029
0.10Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2595% range
±145.3%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.110.000.26
20260.110.000.26
20270.110.000.26
20280.100.000.26
20290.100.000.25

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert.
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO52019
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO41999
JornadaNEW-MEXICO21981
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
Black GapTEXAS22004
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22022
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11974
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12012
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
QueenNEW-MEXICO12002
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO11993
ComstockTEXAS11976
ShafterTEXAS11977
ValentineTEXAS11977
Casa PiedraTEXAS12022
Bear MtnTEXAS11992
PresidioTEXAS12022
Salt FlatTEXAS12014
CanutilloTEXAS12010
MarathonTEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.