BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Oregon has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+159%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Poorwill Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has surged in Oregon: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Common Poorwill Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Oregon is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Oregon is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.020.13
20260.070.020.13
20270.080.020.13
20280.080.020.14
20290.080.020.14

Common Poorwill Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Flook Lake320241998
Crowley220221984
Alvord Lake220061999
Eightmile219931993
Clover Creek219971997
Green Mtn.220222022
Three Forks120242003
Blitzen 2120182018
Wickiup120192019
Bridgeport120102005
Fandango Can120241985
Wagontire120241994
Blitzen119921992
Emigrant Lake 2120242024
Mt Hood119781972
Silver Creek120181992
Blizzard Gap120231985
Lookout Lake119921992
Badger Creek119981998
Unity120232023
Donelly 2120192019
Bald Mtn.119931992
Picture Flat120222007
Warner Vally120241993
Catlow Rim120181995

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.