BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Texas has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Poorwill Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has collapsed in Texas: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Poorwill Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.23
20260.050.000.23
20270.050.000.23
20280.040.000.22
20290.040.000.22

Common Poorwill Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mentone920042004
Randado419881970
Weatherford319781975
Catarina 2320172011
Sejita320132012
Devils R Cyn320171997
Agua Nueva219751970
Zapata219681968
George West219741968
Catarina220101974
Boerne219901985
Valley Spgs219911985
Cottonwood220081970
Olney219941994
Valentine219871969
Slaughter220081986
Girvin220241976
El Sauz220132013
Encinal 2220192011
Langtry219971994
San Pedro220092002
Marfa220242004
Mirando City120091970
Encinal120101969
San Ygnacio119821967

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.