BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Washington has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-72%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Poorwill Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has fallen sharply in Washington: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Common Poorwill Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.05
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.010.000.05

Common Poorwill Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonasket319831983
Mazama220012001
Twisp219911990
Brewster119941994
Quincy120131981
Omak Creek120172012
Moses Coulee120231995
Ellensburg119991999
Ardenvoir119871987
Lake Chelan120222009
Nighthawk120182018
Snowden119711971
Winthrop120182012

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.