BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Arizona has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Poorwill Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has collapsed in Arizona: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Poorwill Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Arizona is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±246.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Arizona is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.48
20260.150.000.47
20270.150.000.47
20280.150.000.47
20290.150.000.47

Common Poorwill Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe520212003
Dragoon320091995
Laguna319681968
Ajo320011970
Bates Well320171995
Gila Bend320092001
Cabeza Priet320152015
Wikieup220191992
San Simon220171974
Cutter 2220182016
Alamo Res.220192000
Navajo Trail220242015
House Rock120181992
Portal120241975
Squaw Peak119691969
Prescott119751975
Vicksburg119681968
New River119751975
Florence119721970
Pomerene120041968
Lukeville119771976
Peña Blanca120171980
Patagonia119991979
Palo Verde 2120152015
Toroweap120211994

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.