BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in New Mexico has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+188%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Poorwill Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has surged in New Mexico: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Common Poorwill Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in New Mexico is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.05–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in New Mexico is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.05–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.050.41
20260.230.050.41
20270.230.050.41
20280.230.050.41
20290.230.050.41

Common Poorwill Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Common Poorwill in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gage520241977
Hatchet Peak520242021
Claunch419991978
Nageesi319941991
Rodeo320241986
Sabinoso320121980
Farley220032003
Wagon Mound219781971
Claunch 2220242002
Cebolla119771977
Ojo Sarco120211975
Torreon119981995
Fence Lake119771977
Cooley Lake119761976
San Antonio119771977
Roswell120191979
Cloudcroft119921992
Mt. Taylor 2120222015
Magdalena120161998
Counselor119991993
Mt. Taylor120051995
Gallinas120172005
Variadero120192016
Clovis120162016
Reserve120231997

Common Poorwill Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.