BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill

CaprimulgidaeAerial insectivoresPhalaenoptilus nuttallii

Common Poorwill has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
443RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Common Poorwill

The Common Poorwill (Phalaenoptilus nuttallii) is a North American member of the Nightjars & Nighthawks (Caprimulgidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
7.5–12 in long (19–30 cm) — a cryptic, big-mouthed bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 443 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 16 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Caprimulgidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Common Poorwill TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Poorwill. See the full index history below.

Common Poorwill Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.010.04
20260.030.010.05
20270.030.010.05
20280.030.010.05
20290.030.010.05

Where the Common Poorwill Is Detected

BBS routes recording Common Poorwill, sized by most recent count.

Common Poorwill Population Trend by State

Common Poorwill population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-80%197038
California-43%197071
Colorado-16%197235
Idaho-79%198713
Kansasinsufficient datan/a7
Montanainsufficient datan/a2
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a2
Nevada+15%197126
New Mexico+188%197536
Oklahoma+81%19816
Oregon+159%197829
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a6
Texas-83%196978
Utah-20%198945
Washington-72%198313
Wyoming-55%197636

Common Poorwill Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Common Poorwill population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-3%197091
Northern Rockies+28%197642
Sierra Nevada+96%197810
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+39%197775
Badlands and Prairies-77%198214
Shortgrass Prairie-81%197219
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-33%197515
Edwards Plateau-46%197214
Oaks and Prairies-42%197610
Coastal California+54%197136
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-66%197033
Sierra Madre Occidental-71%197019
Chihuahuan Desert-13%197039
Tamaulipan Brushlands-89%196917

Common Poorwill Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 60% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.