BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Poorwill In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.56
20260.110.000.55
20270.100.000.55
20280.090.000.54
20290.090.000.53

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DragoonARIZONA32009
San SimonARIZONA22017
PrescottARIZONA11975
PomereneARIZONA12004
Peña BlancaARIZONA12017
PatagoniaARIZONA11999
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
Forest LakesARIZONA12011
Bartlett ResARIZONA12002
RedingtonARIZONA11996
AmadoARIZONA12022
McnealARIZONA12021
Carr MtnARIZONA11996
SprucedaleARIZONA12017
PortalARIZONA12024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12001
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.