BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-81%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Common Poorwill In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.07
20240.010.000.07
20250.010.000.07
20260.010.000.07
20270.010.000.07

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MentoneTEXAS92004
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32012
CrawfordNEBRASKA21996
FarleyNEW-MEXICO22003
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO21978
BriggsdaleCOLORADO11968
KiowaCOLORADO12013
Mica ButteCOLORADO11982
GilpinCOLORADO11971
Cone MtnCOLORADO12016
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12022
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO11976
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12019
ClovisNEW-MEXICO12016
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12016
Frankel CityTEXAS12013
StilesTEXAS12009
ClaytonvilleTEXAS12022
Kermit 2TEXAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.