BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Poorwill In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.10 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.10 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.050.000.81
20240.030.000.80
20250.010.000.78
20260.000.000.77
20270.000.000.77

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RandadoTEXAS41988
Catarina 2TEXAS32017
SejitaTEXAS32013
Agua NuevaTEXAS21975
ZapataTEXAS21968
George WestTEXAS21974
CatarinaTEXAS22010
El SauzTEXAS22013
Encinal 2TEXAS22019
Mirando CityTEXAS12009
EncinalTEXAS12010
San YgnacioTEXAS11982
HondoTEXAS12021
RaymondvilleTEXAS11989
ProgresoTEXAS12008
LaredoTEXAS12002
Millett 2TEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.