BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-42%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Poorwill in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Common Poorwill In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±328.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±328.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±328.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.110.000.30
20200.110.000.30
20210.110.000.30
20220.110.000.29
20230.110.000.29

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WeatherfordTEXAS31978
CottonwoodTEXAS22008
OlneyTEXAS21994
CampbelltonTEXAS12005
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11988
SeldenTEXAS11989
GrafordTEXAS12018
AlbanyTEXAS11996
BrucevilleTEXAS12018
Whit Mtn.TEXAS11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.