BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+96%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Common Poorwill In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 36% by 2023 — from 0.13 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.03–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 36% by 2023 — from 0.13 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.03–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.080.030.13
20200.080.030.13
20210.080.030.13
20220.080.030.13
20230.080.030.13

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22018
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12011
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12009
LumberyardCALIFORNIA11985
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA11997
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11983
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12015
GoumazCALIFORNIA12010
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA12005
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.