BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Poorwill In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Common Poorwill In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.65
20270.280.000.65
20280.280.000.65
20290.280.000.65
20300.280.000.65

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GageNEW-MEXICO72025
Devils R CynTEXAS32017
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22025
ValentineTEXAS21987
SlaughterTEXAS22008
GirvinTEXAS22024
Bear MtnTEXAS22025
LangtryTEXAS21997
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11977
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO11992
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12016
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12025
PinonNEW-MEXICO12017
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12025
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12015
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12012
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12022
ComstockTEXAS12023
Hot SpringsTEXAS12008
Black GapTEXAS12013
ShafterTEXAS11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.