BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Common Poorwill In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.64
20260.270.000.64
20270.270.000.64
20280.270.000.64
20290.270.000.64

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GageNEW-MEXICO52024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO52024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO32024
Devils R CynTEXAS32017
ValentineTEXAS21987
SlaughterTEXAS22008
GirvinTEXAS22024
LangtryTEXAS21997
MarfaTEXAS22024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11977
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12019
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO11992
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12016
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024
PinonNEW-MEXICO12017
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12015
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12012
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12022
ComstockTEXAS12023
Hot SpringsTEXAS12008
Black GapTEXAS12013
ShafterTEXAS11984
LongfellowTEXAS12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.