BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-33%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Poorwill in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.06
20240.020.000.06
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChapmanKANSAS21978
ErickOKLAHOMA21984
SicklesOKLAHOMA22016
CovertKANSAS12005
PhillipsburgKANSAS11995
HopewellKANSAS12014
GrimesOKLAHOMA11987
HollisOKLAHOMA12019
WoodwardOKLAHOMA12019
Pear ValleyTEXAS12009
WinchellTEXAS12021
WeinertTEXAS11972
MertzonTEXAS11975
EldoradoTEXAS12022
WilliamsTEXAS12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.