BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Poorwill In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 20% by 2026 — from 0.13 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 20% by 2026 — from 0.13 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.110.000.42
20230.110.000.42
20240.110.000.42
20250.100.000.42
20260.100.000.42

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ PipeARIZONA52021
OnyxCALIFORNIA51998
LagunaARIZONA31968
AjoARIZONA32001
Gila BendARIZONA32009
Cabeza PrietARIZONA32015
Bates WellARIZONA32017
WikieupARIZONA22019
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22019
Cutter 2ARIZONA22018
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA21992
BarstowCALIFORNIA21987
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA21995
CimaCALIFORNIA21995
Squaw PeakARIZONA11969
VicksburgARIZONA11968
New RiverARIZONA11975
FlorenceARIZONA11972
LukevilleARIZONA11977
Cibola LakeARIZONA11998
HopeARIZONA12009
Ajo 2ARIZONA12017
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA12015
UbehebeCALIFORNIA11988
Calif CityCALIFORNIA11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.