BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+54%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Poorwill has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Common Poorwill In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.01–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.01–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.010.25
20260.130.010.25
20270.130.010.25
20280.130.010.25
20290.130.010.25

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA62022
Big BearCALIFORNIA31983
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA32024
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA22012
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA22024
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA21974
VentucopaCALIFORNIA22002
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA22021
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA22018
Cleveland Nf 2CALIFORNIA22022
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA22007
RumseyCALIFORNIA11981
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA12004
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA12023
CoalingaCALIFORNIA11975
Morro BayCALIFORNIA11980
PowayCALIFORNIA11975
FolsomCALIFORNIA12023
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA12022
TujungaCALIFORNIA12021
ValyermoCALIFORNIA11986
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA12018
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA11982
JacumbaCALIFORNIA11994
TehamaCALIFORNIA11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.