BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Poorwill In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Common Poorwill in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-46%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Poorwill in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Common Poorwill In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 95% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Poorwill in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 95% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.000.43
20250.130.000.43
20260.130.000.42
20270.120.000.42
20280.120.000.42

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Common Poorwill in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BoerneTEXAS21990
Valley SpgsTEXAS21991
UtopiaTEXAS11986
FitzhughTEXAS11971
HarperTEXAS11993
San SabaTEXAS12006
PidcokeTEXAS11999
KempnerTEXAS12007
AdamsvilleTEXAS12011
Indian MtnTEXAS12017
LeakeyTEXAS11999
MontellTEXAS11997
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12016
Allen CreekTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.