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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 2.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 2.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.92.67.2
20264.92.77.2
20275.02.77.3
20285.02.77.3
20295.12.87.4

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paunina4820241993
Davis Lake4720242000
Bald Mtn.4420241992
Silvies4020241994
Ochoco3719821975
Logdell3420241972
Donnelly3020061994
Paisley2720241973
Silver Creek2020241984
Barnes Val1919871972
Sisters1920241997
Picture Flat1820241993
Lakeview1820241996
Granite1720241987
Bly1620011973
Desolation1620071993
Fish Lake1520241978
Hash Rock1520241983
Camp Sherman1419961975
Badger Creek1420241992
Flora1220231993
Mount Vernon1220241987
Wizard Falls1120241998
Wickiup820241969
Troy820241992

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.