BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.8–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.8–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.92.67.2
20274.92.77.2
20285.02.77.2
20295.02.77.3
20305.02.87.3

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Silvies4020241994
Davis Lake3920252000
Ochoco3719821975
Bald Mtn.3420251992
Paunina3420251993
Donnelly3020061994
Sisters2620251997
Silver Creek2420251984
Barnes Val1919871972
Granite1920251987
Logdell1820251972
Paisley1820251973
Lakeview1720251996
Bly1620011973
Hash Rock1520251983
Albee1420251969
Camp Sherman1419961975
Wallowa1320252025
Troy1320251992
Flora1220231993
Mount Vernon1220241987
Donelly 21120252018
Twickenham1020252019
Elk Lake920251972
Picture Flat920251993

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.