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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-6%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.890.002.1
20270.870.002.1
20280.850.002.0
20290.830.002.0
20300.810.002.0

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Mountain1820011992
Hill City1520131992
Rochford1320251994
Norbeck1220011992
Hazelrodt620251992
Black Fox520171992
Lightning Cr320251999
Long Draw320251992
Wind Cave Np320251999
Custer320251971
Pleasant Val220231992
Englewood220211992
Silver City120122012

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.