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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in South Dakota

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Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-34%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.002.1
20260.860.002.1
20270.840.002.1
20280.820.002.0
20290.810.002.0

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rochford1920181994
Elk Mountain1820011992
Hill City1520131992
Norbeck1220011992
Hazelrodt620241992
Black Fox520171992
Long Draw520241992
Lightning Cr420221999
Pleasant Val220231992
Englewood220211992
Wind Cave Np220231999
Custer120241971
Silver City120122012

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.