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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Colorado has surged: up 590% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+590%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Colorado: up 590% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Colorado is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.6–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Colorado is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.6–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.22.34.1
20273.22.44.1
20283.32.44.2
20293.42.54.2
20303.42.64.3

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcphee Res.4320251996
Haycamp Mesa2920251998
Mesaverde Np2620251997
Baxter Pass2420242013
Dolores Riv1820251988
Blackhead Pk1620251993
Nucla1320252000
Thomasville1120251997
Douglas Pass1020241985
Colona1020121983
Tincup1020251992
Marshall Pas1020081995
Stillwater Pass 21020252010
Lost Lake920251990
Uncompahgre920251998
Colona 2820252015
Deadman Rd.720251992
Willow Peak620251988
Castleton620251994
Pinon620251993
Radium620131998
Delta520211973
Doyleville520251996
Piedra520251996
Stillwater Pass520092009

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.