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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Arizona has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+138%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Arizona: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.35
20260.160.000.35
20270.160.000.35
20280.170.000.36
20290.170.000.36

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tsaile820232017
Williams320062001
Maine320161997
Pinetop220182018
Sawmill220141988
Clay Spring220092009
House Rock119951995
Rose Wells119681968
Alpine120212021
Sprucedale120172017
Dry Park120241997

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.