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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Utah has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+139%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Utah: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Utah is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.79–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Utah is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.79–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.721.8
20261.30.741.8
20271.30.761.8
20281.30.771.8
20291.30.791.9

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lost Cr. Res1220181995
La Sal1220001994
Beck1019871986
Moon Lake 2920232004
Grizzly Rdge820241993
Woodruff820242007
Fish Lake Nf820241992
Saleratus Cr620131995
E. Bear Lake620222004
Ant Flat-Ogden Can620231995
Uintah Nf619941991
Wasatch Nf620241991
Neponset Res520021996
Oak City520151984
Navajo Lake520241986
Randolph520241992
Gooseberry520241994
Goose Creek Mtn.520212019
Beck 2520181990
Altonah420002000
Hanna420231997
Hyrum319791975
La Sal 2320062003
Soapstone320241992
M Warner Res320232006

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.