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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Wyoming has surged: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+476%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Wyoming: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Wyoming is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.96–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Wyoming is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.96–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.882.1
20261.50.902.1
20271.50.922.2
20281.60.942.2
20291.60.962.2

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moskee 31820242022
Crazy Woman1320241979
Fiddler Lk1220241982
Sundance1120241976
Wilson1120241979
Colter Bay1019991968
Horse Creek1020241980
Moskee 21020212002
Hunter Peak920241994
Moskee720011980
Fox Park620242015
Sybille Cyn620141993
Buford520242016
Mammoth520241983
Soda Lake520241983
Buckskin Mtn520181992
Dubois320241988
Savery319931989
Moose320241976
Boulder320232005
Fletcher Pk320241992
Ne Entrance220191997
Colter Bay 2220232021
Crowheart220022002
Moran220162002

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.