BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-63%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.27
20260.100.000.26
20270.100.000.26
20280.100.000.26
20290.100.000.26

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Taylor 2420242014
Vallecitos220241994
Gallinas220192000
Reserve220211993
Bluewater Lake220212000
Cebolla120151977
Ojo Sarco120171976
Pecos120021999
Claunch119821982
Dulce120192007
Angel Fire 2120212007
Jornada119971997
Cloudcroft120231981
Maxwell120091998
Angel Fire119981996
Mcgaffey120082004
Mt. Taylor120121998
Vicks Peak120031993
Emory Pass119951995
Pinon120151992
Claunch 2120242017

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.