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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Nevada has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+171%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Nevada: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.55
20260.200.000.55
20270.200.000.55
20280.200.000.55
20290.200.000.55

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt Nf 21120242022
Humboldt Nf719941994
Hawthorne720011997
Illipah520092009
Jarbidge420152009
Walker Can320242024
Eureka319971997
Bald Mtn.220242024
Willis220211988
Midas120131991
Dinner Sta119931993
Ranchogrande120232009
Comins Lake120142005
Nixon120242024
Dobbin Creek120002000
Minerva119891989

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.