BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Montana has surged: up 538% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+538%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Montana: up 538% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.54.5
20263.11.64.6
20273.11.64.6
20283.11.64.7
20293.21.74.7

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard Coulee4020242017
Fish Creek3220241995
Boulder920241970
Clancy920232015
Sula820241986
Fort Logan720242018
Logan Pass620241980
Threemile Wa620241994
St Regis520241977
Pryor Mtn.520242001
Swan Lake520212021
Wise River520241993
Inside Road420241990
Chestnut420241968
Red Rock420241980
East Glacier Park420242015
Freeman Creek420162015
Cramer Creek320192004
Arlee320241984
Greenoagh 3320192017
Thompson Riv320221993
Hebgen Lake320242017
Lima320241994
Noxon320231995
Libby Dam220241979

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.