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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Montana has surged: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+529%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Montana: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.6–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+108%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.6–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.44.5
20273.01.54.5
20283.01.54.6
20293.11.54.6
20303.11.64.6

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Creek3220241995
Maynard Coulee3020252017
Clancy1120252015
Wise River1020251993
Arlee920251984
Pryor Mtn.920252001
Boulder820251970
Sula820241986
Logan Pass720251980
Inside Road720251990
Fort Logan720242018
Threemile Wa620241994
St Regis520241977
Swan Lake520212021
Wolf Creek420252015
Freeman Creek420162015
Lima420251994
Cramer Creek320192004
Woodman320251976
Chestnut320251968
Red Rock320251980
Greenoagh 3320192017
Thompson Riv320221993
Pagil Gulch320252015
Noxon320231995

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.