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Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Idaho

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Idaho has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+56%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has risen sharply in Idaho: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.2–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.2–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.14.3
20272.71.14.4
20282.81.14.4
20292.81.24.4
20302.81.24.4

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade2919841983
Nezperce1920121992
Magic Mtn1820251987
Featherville1720251989
Golden1420161987
Sawtooth City 21320252015
Cape Horn1220251989
Challis1020251980
Sawtooth Cty1020141988
Triangle920211990
Squirrel820251971
Centerville720251982
Sunbeam720251995
Avery620161979
Silver City620251989
Kyle Canyon420251995
Grangeville320101987
Coolin320251986
Pierce320071990
Cobalt320251989
Almo320251988
Nezperce Nf319991992
Naples220251972
Mivoden220221978
Gifford220171986

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.