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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Washington has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+216%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky Flycatcher Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Washington: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Washington is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Washington is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.53.0
20262.31.53.1
20272.31.63.1
20282.41.63.1
20292.41.63.1

Dusky Flycatcher Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blewett Pass3920241992
E. Mt. Adams2320241996
Omak Creek1920241996
Lake Chelan1720241988
L Pend O Nwr1320241995
Ellensburg1320241983
Twisp1120211970
Ardenvoir1019871973
Spring Lake620241986
Cloverland620241993
Keller520071968
Cusick520241982
Mazama520221993
Twin Lakes420241983
Nighthawk419921992
Pomeroy420241998
Neilton319751975
Ronald320241973
Carlton320221992
Waitsburg320041994
L. Wenatchee320241993
Asotin220241987
Tonasket220141989
Leavenworth220241981
Mendota219861977

Dusky Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.