BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Oregon has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-0%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.60–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.60–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.693.3
20261.90.673.2
20271.90.653.2
20281.90.633.2
20291.90.603.2

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Umatilla6020231988
Crane2820241993
Twickenham2720242010
Umpqua2520241968
Donnybrook2019971997
Green1520241994
Ordnance1319791971
Imnaha1320241968
Mikkalo1120231996
Sams Valley1020241993
Trout Creek1020211996
Flora920092004
Malheur Nwr920221986
Deschutes820241969
Merrill820221993
Lone Rock720241968
Montague720241974
Pendleton720241978
Adrian720211984
Emigrant Lake 2720242002
Newbridge720241992
Sparta620011971
Elkton620241973
Emigrant Lk620011972
Madras620241997

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.