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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Oregon has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.65–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.65–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.733.3
20272.00.713.3
20282.00.693.3
20292.00.673.3
20301.90.653.2

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Umatilla3420251988
Green3220251994
Crane2820241993
Donnybrook2019971997
Monument1920251993
Umpqua1620251968
Sparta1620251971
Montague1520251974
Sams Valley1520251993
Ordnance1319791971
Twickenham1320252010
Elkton1220251973
Deschutes1020251969
Flora920092004
Malheur Nwr920221986
Alvord Lake820251971
Mikkalo820251996
Merrill820221993
Lone Rock720241968
Pendleton720251978
Adrian720251984
Cecil720251998
Madras720251997
Newbridge720251992
Ruch720251992

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.