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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Washington has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Washington. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Washington is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.5–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Washington is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.5–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.11.56.8
20274.11.56.8
20284.21.56.8
20294.21.56.8
20304.21.56.8

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scootney Reservoir2920252009
Columbia Nwr2720221992
Potholes2720231996
Nighthawk2520251992
Hatton2219941992
Walla Walla1919931993
Mesa1720081994
Connell1520151968
Othello1519911981
Keystone1520251994
Wapato1420221972
Ellensburg1420251981
Mercer1320221981
Quincy1320241981
Twisp1220241969
Odessa1220251993
Ewan1120191983
Asotin1020251971
Yakima1020251993
Ewan 2820252023
Waitsburg720041994
Harwood719971993
Laurier720251999
Keller620071968
Pomona619991998

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.