BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Oklahoma has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.004.6
20272.20.004.5
20282.10.004.4
20292.10.004.4
20302.00.004.3

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hooker1920251992
Chester1619881967
Felt1620241968
Colony919951995
Hollis920251993
Hardesty820241970
Keyes820241992
Rosston720181967
Beaver720181979
Ft Sill East719941994
Clear Lake620251992
Phillips420061968
Choctaw420231968
Cookietown320061968
Erick320241969
Heyburn320251992
Sickles320211992
Arapaho320141992
Elgin320131994
Jet320221992
Ft Sill West319941994
Wichita Mtns319941994
Wichita Mtns East220152012
Indianola220252005
Holdenville220251986

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.