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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Montana has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has risen sharply in Montana: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Montana is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Montana is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.84.3
20263.11.94.3
20273.11.94.4
20283.21.94.4
20293.22.04.4

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Circle3720231969
Forsyth2520231980
Custer2020222019
Miles City1920242015
Lambert1820242021
Brandenberg1420191968
Dinosaurs H.M.1420242018
Saco1220242015
Redstone1020241968
Church Hill1020242017
Custer 21020242024
Oswego920241978
Chinook920242015
Malta820241977
Lindsay820242015
Wheat Basin820242017
Willow Creek 2720241982
Virgelle620241979
Webster620241978
Powderville620241970
Glentana620242015
Cabin Creek620242018
Laurel520221968
Shelby520242015
Coleman Coulee520232017

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.