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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Montana has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Montana: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Montana is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Montana is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.94.4
20273.22.04.4
20283.22.04.5
20293.32.04.5
20303.32.14.5

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandenberg4120251968
Circle3720231969
Forsyth2520231980
Cabin Creek2320252018
Miles City2220252015
Westby2020252015
Lambert2020252021
Custer2020222019
Powderville1420251970
Shelby1220252015
Church Hill1220252017
Webster1120251978
Glasgow1020251979
Virgelle920251979
Glentana920252015
Custer 2920252024
Redstone820251968
Reed Point820251978
Chinook820252015
Saco820252015
Dinosaurs H.M.820252018
Lindsay820242015
Malta720251977
Savage720251968
Oswego620251978

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.