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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Nebraska has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.3 (95% range 3.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.3 (95% range 3.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20277.33.211
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Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arthur5120251985
Dalton3020251968
Paxton2920161967
Stratton2520251975
Berea2520251980
Hendley2320252018
Brownson2220212021
Kimball2120251975
Crookston2020252018
Hay Springs1820252018
Agate 21820252002
Berwyn 21620252014
Sumner1520251967
Mullen1520231990
Bartley1420251967
Murray Lake1420251987
Oconto1319811968
Gordon1320251975
Crescent Lk1320251980
Almeria1220211969
Kearney1120251968
Kenesaw1020251967
Agate1020011968
Culbertson1020252018
Holbrook920251969

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.