BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in California

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in California has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
220Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in California. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.3 (95% range 5.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.3 (95% range 5.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.45.711
20278.45.611
20288.45.611
20298.35.611
20308.35.611

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Western Kingbird in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Athlone13020071972
Orland7520221972
Tranquillity6520241972
Atwater6220121971
Oneals5020241972
Parkfield4620251968
Redding4619831972
Zamora4620251972
Tres Pinos 24620112005
Ora Loma4420251972
Iron Gate4220191988
Yolla Bolly4120251973
Tipton4019971972
Red Bluff3720251968
Hughson3720251968
Yokohl Val3619971972
Pennington3520251971
Tracy3520091992
Shafter3419891971
Oroville3420251972
Bakersfield3320231968
Jackson3019921972
Palo Verde2820251973
Tres Pinos2620031968
Ventucopa2620021972

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.