BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Minnesota has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±383.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±383.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±383.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.47
20270.100.000.47
20280.090.000.46
20290.090.000.46
20300.080.000.45

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockhart520251993
Badger419881980
Warroad420031994
Lakeville319721972
Big Stone320111995
Ash Creek219851975
Courtland219891989
Redwood Fall219831978
Pine River219801980
Edwards220041973
Tenney220151978
Wylie220001971
Money Creek120002000
Chandler119821976
Arlington119941973
Maynard120001998
Dawson120042003
Princeton119781969
Osseo119841976
Knapp119781967
St Stephen119861971
Appleton120141980
Gluek119961968
Chokio120091970
Evergreen119701969

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.