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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Texas has surged: up 824% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+824%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
205Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Texas: up 824% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.916
2026128.116
2027128.317
2028138.517
2029138.717

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lamesa13520241968
Friona11620242001
Plains10820171994
Claytonville9920221995
Pecos8320172017
Dougherty7620241995
Plains6720241968
Frankel City6420221975
Wink6319861975
Circle6020241968
Tenmile5520232002
Floydada4520241976
Midland4420241995
Wall4020221994
Waka3920241975
Saragosa3620242022
Mentone3220152002
Dalhart2720241994
Twichell2620231996
Texline2520241975
Van Horn2520242017
Kermit2319991994
Cactus2320241994
Pantex2220241974
Post2120241970

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.