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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Texas has surged: up 733% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+733%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
207Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Texas: up 733% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+101%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.516
2027127.616
2028127.817
2029128.017
2030138.217

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plains10820171994
Claytonville9920221995
Lamesa8420251968
Pecos8320172017
Friona6720252001
Frankel City6420221975
Wink6319861975
Circle6020241968
Tenmile5520232002
Dougherty5320251995
Plains4720251968
Cactus4220251994
Saragosa4220252022
Girvin4020251975
Wall4020221994
Floydada3420251976
Midland3420251995
Waka3320251975
Dalhart3320251994
Mentone3220152002
Texline3020251975
Twichell2920251996
Van Horn2820252017
Stiles2520251995
Rankin2420251968

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.