BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.008.0
20263.70.007.9
20273.60.007.8
20283.50.007.7
20293.40.007.6

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greasewood2620031993
Cibola Lake1820211993
Mcneal1620241992
Palo Verde1420131992
Cutter1320141992
Palo Verde 21320242014
Rose Wells1219771968
Sunizona919971968
Skull Valley920241996
Clay Spring920241988
Page820191993
Hope 2820192014
Yampai719771969
Pomerene720241968
San Simon720241969
Dragoon720091993
Seligman620241991
Cactus Forest620241991
Vicksburg519891968
Kaibito520181993
Portal520141975
Cutter 2520182015
Red Rock 2520232015
Dateland420211990
Ajo420011968

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.