BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970
81Routes In State
56Years

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in Arizona

long arc declinecomputed index

Western Kingbird has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029
3.4Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.695% range
±78.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.80.008.0
20263.70.007.9
20273.60.007.8
20283.50.007.7
20293.40.007.6

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Arizona.
Greasewood2620031993
Cibola Lake1820211993
Mcneal1620241992
Palo Verde1420131992
Cutter1320141992
Palo Verde 21320242014
Rose Wells1219771968
Sunizona919971968
Skull Valley920241996
Clay Spring920241988
Page820191993
Hope 2820192014
Yampai719771969
Pomerene720241968
San Simon720241969
Dragoon720091993
Seligman620241991
Cactus Forest620241991
Vicksburg519891968
Kaibito520181993
Portal520141975
Cutter 2520182015
Red Rock 2520232015
Dateland420211990
Ajo420011968

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.