BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Colorado has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.315
2027116.315
2028116.315
2029116.315
2030116.315

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect Val17220001992
Hudson7620251988
Mica Butte6519871968
Kiowa6020181968
Kirk5420231992
Prospect Valley 24820252001
Arsenal 24720252016
Arsenal4320151991
Wildhorse L4220251988
Neegrande3420251992
Rush3120251983
Fruita3120071988
Grover2820241992
Cortez 22820172009
Campo2620251988
Cortez2620081988
Pritchett2520251995
Fleming2320251968
Ellicott2320251994
Flagler2220251997
Gilpin2120251970
Bennett2120251995
Boyero2020171979
Falfa2020251971
Amherst2020241992

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.