BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Colorado has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.515
2026116.515
2027116.515
2028116.515
2029116.515

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect Val17220001992
Mica Butte6519871968
Kiowa6020181968
Rush6020241983
Hudson5420241988
Kirk5420231992
Prospect Valley 24420232001
Arsenal4320151991
Last Chance 23420242017
Fruita3120071988
Limon3120241992
Nunn2920211995
Ellicott2920241994
Grover2820241992
Cortez 22820172009
Neegrande2720241992
Falfa2620241971
Cortez2620081988
Kiowa 22520242019
Doyle Bridge 22220231998
Boyero2020171979
Amherst2020241992
Rockport2020241994
Arsenal 22020242016
Waverly1920191988

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.