BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Nevada has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+68%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has risen sharply in Nevada: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.1 (95% range 3.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.1 (95% range 3.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.73.310
20276.83.410
20286.93.510
20297.03.510
20307.13.611

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallon6020251992
Caliente4120251988
Hiko3320251968
Oreana2720032002
Gardnerville1620121992
Toiyabe Nf1520241987
Ruby Valley 21520212004
Alamo1519731970
Minerva1420241988
Nelson820241996
Meadow Vally820251996
Carson River720052001
Ranchogrande620131998
Rye Patch419871968
Willis420251988
Ruby Valley420011997
Vya319741972
Piute Mdws320252005
Mizpah320241996
Frenchman319781973
Silver Peak320062006
Ash Meadows320251993
Gardnerville 2320252013
Darroughs Hot Spgs320242008
Calico Spr219741973

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.