BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Nevada has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+54%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has risen sharply in Nevada: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Nevada is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Nevada is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.63.110
20266.73.210
20276.73.310
20286.83.310
20296.93.410

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallon12620241992
Gardnerville 23120242013
Oreana2720032002
Gardnerville1620121992
Toiyabe Nf1520241987
Ruby Valley 21520212004
Alamo1519731970
Minerva1420241988
Hiko1020231968
Meadow Vally1020241996
Nelson820241996
Chimney Res.820242005
Carson River720052001
Ranchogrande620131998
Willis520241988
Rye Patch419871968
Ruby Valley420011997
Vya319741972
Mizpah320241996
Frenchman319781973
Majors Place320241968
Silver Peak320062006
Nixon320241973
Darroughs Hot Spgs320242008
Piute Mdws220212005

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.