BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Idaho

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Idaho has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+157%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Idaho: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Idaho is projected to rise about 113% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.5–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+113%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Idaho is projected to rise about 113% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.5–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.36.6
20264.52.46.7
20274.62.46.7
20284.62.56.8
20294.72.56.9

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glenns Ferry9819861968
Pocatello2620191979
Ririe2120231971
Cedar Hill2120241989
Blacks Creek1720171969
Mud Lake1720231988
Pasadena Val1320161987
Acequia1220121979
Mora1120242018
Dubois1020241971
Preston920231988
Crane Creek820191988
Picabo820211989
Iron Springs520131995
Daniels Res520191988
Gifford420171971
Springfield320181969
Triangle320241985
Salmon River320212002
Twin Buttes220231997
Kyle Canyon220241989
Challis220112011
Craters220171987
Magic Mtn220242011
Tractor Flat220241985

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.