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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Missouri has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-80%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has collapsed in Missouri: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.19
20260.040.000.19
20270.040.000.19
20280.030.000.19
20290.030.000.19

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover420132013
Cameron220232003
Barnard220142007
Ohio220182018
Sni Mills219851972
Rockingham220112005
Mcfall220132013
Pulaski120182018
Norborne120222017
Watson120212007
Filley120102010
Reeds120221987
Hayden119901990
Syracuse120112011
Diamond120242022
Tarkio119771968
Laclede120232018
Kearney120162004
New Point120241994
Union119911991
Sedalia120062006

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.