BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 1.9–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 1.9–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171.733
2026171.833
2027181.833
2028181.933
2029181.933

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Western Kingbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk4420241980
Bowman4420241967
Douglas Crk4020241982
Denbigh3420241968
Sydney3219831967
Zap3120241967
Ft Yates2320041968
Sheyenne Lk2220241980
Buchanan2120241967
Parshall2120131982
Braddock2120221988
Carson2020241988
Danzig 21920242019
Dickinson1820241968
Dunn Center1720241968
Glen Ullin1720221982
Carpio1620231967
Lake George1520221967
Danzig1420141982
Gorham1220181968
Regan1120221968
Cedar Creek1120221968
Powers Lake1020241980
Solen1020242005
Tobacco920191968

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.