BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in North Dakota has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Kingbird in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 1.6–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 1.6–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171.433
2027171.533
2028171.533
2029171.633
2030171.633

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Western Kingbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bowman3520251967
Dunn Center3320251968
Sydney3219831967
Zap3120241967
Denbigh2720251968
Dickinson2420251968
Ft Yates2320041968
Horsehead Lk2120251980
Parshall2120131982
Danzig 22120252019
Gorham2020251968
Powers Lake1920251980
Glen Ullin1720251982
Lake George1620231967
Carpio1620231967
Wild Rose1520251982
Danzig1420141982
Solen1320252005
Douglas Crk1220251982
Cedar Creek1120221968
Buchanan1020251967
Golva1020251986
Tobacco920191968
Sheyenne Lk920251980
Carson920251988

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.