BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in South Dakota has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has fallen sharply in South Dakota: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.006.6
20262.00.006.5
20271.80.006.3
20281.70.006.2
20291.60.006.1

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Western Kingbird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promise4620151972
Eagle Butte3720151990
Conde3319841967
Isabel2920151990
Cedar Pass2120231968
Lacreek1420231991
Lodgepole1120241990
Lane 21120142000
Long Lake1020191967
Marcus1020151999
Ft Thompson920111967
Laplant920151971
Owanka920221967
White Lake720111967
Chamberlain720111967
Raymond720211967
Rosebud620111967
Broadland620141967
Gorman620101979
Maurine620241968
Rockyford520231967
Volunteer520191969
Reva520241979
Howard420191970
Roswell420141967

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregontennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.