BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+61%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.8–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.8–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025137.618
2026137.718
2027137.718
2028137.718
2029137.818

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Western Kingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hobbs7020241994
Lakewood5120211980
Mesilla4720001992
Bitter Lake4220231994
Sunshine Wll4020241992
Roswell3620231971
Laborcita3620191992
Clovis3420241993
Laborcita 23220242022
Variadero3120221994
Red Rock2920241992
Columbus2820241992
Rosebud2620241994
Cooley Lake2420241972
San Antonio2319771974
Caprock2320241977
Gage2320241974
Pep2320241992
Sedan2220241994
Grenville2120241970
La Plata2020131990
Rodeo1820241974
Engle1519891979
La Plata 21520162014
Farley1420241979

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.